US national debt

How it's calculated. Starts at Treasury's official figure for 2026-10-23 (close of business). Rate: 90-day least-squares trend (63 daily records), the same window for total, public and intragovernmental debt so the parts add up to the total. Re-based every business day. Backtested against the next Treasury close over the last 20 business days: average error 0.062%.

Source. Treasury, Debt to the Penny, official as of Oct 23, 2026.

Daily check. Yesterday's projection vs Debt to the Penny (next business day): -0.030% (threshold ±0.25%); average |error| over 20 days 0.062%.

* Per person (projected population) divides by the US population projected to now: the official Census Vintage 2025 estimate for July 1, 2025 (341,784,857), projected forward at Census's stated growth rate (343,051,422 at build time). Official basis, no projection: $118,387.78 per person = Treasury's Oct 23, 2026 close ÷ the 341,784,857 Census estimate for Jul 1, 2025. Per tax return filed divides by 162,754,810 individual income tax returns filed in FY2025 (IRS Data Book, Table 1-2); a joint return counts once and returns with zero tax liability are included.